With the last WM election of 2022 now well underway, the all-important ONN projection is here to settle some nerves and give some indication as to how this election might go.
With 4 votes cast, Patec has taken an early lead, however, we are only sitting at around 50% of all the votes expected. Niater still has a massive chance of victory in this race.
However, ONN can rule out the prospect of a Maricoen victory at this stage. While Maricoen may gather some, or even significant support in this race, it remains unlikely that Maricoen will be able to pull out a victory. While Maricoen might win the Orange Cup, it doesn't seem like they can win the Orange Election.
So, the question remains, where do the other two candidates stand?
The ONN projection places the final results average to be:
Patec: 4 votes
Niater: 3 votes
Maricoen: 2 votes
Yet projections range from:
Patec: 3-5 votes
Niater: 2-4 votes
Maricoen: 1-2 votes
Therefore, there is a possibility of a Niater victory on 4 votes to Patec's 3.
However, this election leaves several things in question or doubt. The role of Speaker will very likely have its second ever holder with Niater either becoming WM or DM, meaning that TOO (nation) will have to appoint a new nation for the role.
Meanwhile, both major candidates seem to be in denial about their parliament plans, with Niater's candidate, De Roock, when asked in a debate if the Parliament system had died, saying:
"No. It has not. It was sworn in legally in the opposition's term, and we will keep it, the poll showed support for the Parliament, from both the TNO and PSD, but whilst none of them won the threshold, there is still support being shown for the Parliament."
However, Patec's candidate, Dogyo stated, in answer to the same question:
"It could appear that way… but I don’t think so. One thing I think this region can agree on is the lack of satisfaction with the constitutions attempt at a legislative body. I definitely want to give it a bit of a break though. I will not mess with Parliament in the first half of a second term."
It appears that Patec has made a greater effort to appeal to anti-parliament nations within the region, however this could also be because a large proportion of them reside within the TNO party, and Patec needs their support regardless of how other nations vote.
Yet Niater was keen to win over pro-parliament nations, and possibly neutral nations as well by not explicitly confirming new parliament legislation.
However, a new debate seems to be emerging in the region, regarding the role of the founder. When asked "A select minority of this region has raised alarms being under a monarchy by the founder. Will it ever come under question by your government?", De Roock responded:
"I think we will be raising this question, under my tenure. I won't be calling for a full ousting, as they are an important symbol of the region. What I will be calling a partial ousting for is maybe the flag, again. I will consider a flag poll, we will make sure that the king is still respected or part of the flag, in any way at all."
The ODU criticised this as an unnecessary and pointless debate, however Niater is clearly gambling on the prospect that their could be support for republicanism in the region.
Meanwhile, Dogyo said:
Not while held by myself it won’t. His majesty is a symbol of our region. The founder, quite literally the life barer of this great order.
"However blurring ties to our British origins is something I’m keen on at least bringing up for conversation. I want to bring this orders Flag and map back to poll. If it’s noticed that we’ve collectively drifted from the kings founding vision, I would like to adjust his majesties full title to reflect that. The bottom line is. A monarch reined over Too upon my arrival. As long as they are just and fair, they shall remain upon my departure as well."
It's clear that both candidates are keen on resurrecting the flag debate held a few months ago, and this is an issue that much of the region has previously been keen to express their views on.
However this election goes, it's clear that both party candidates have extensive plans for the region.